What would a self-sufficient AI actually take?

1the argument

People keep arguing: do we already have AGI? Someone says Opus 4.5 counts. That fight is boring because nobody agrees what the word even means.

2the new test

Ajeya Cotra proposes a sharper test: forget the word AGI entirely. Ask instead — could the AIs survive and multiply with zero humans left alive?

3the closed loop

Picture the whole loop the AIs would need to run alone: mine the raw quartz, refine it, etch chips, build power plants, run robots — no humans anywhere in this circle.

4today's gap

Right now every one of those steps still leans on a human hand somewhere. This milestone is hit only once the whole ring runs itself, forever, without us.

5why it matters

Why chase this weird definition? Because it's mechanically tied to the scariest AI-takeover story: an AI can't safely wipe out humanity until it no longer needs us.

6the tripwire

So self-sufficiency isn't just a curiosity — it's the tripwire. Watching an AI edge toward it is watching it edge toward the point where humans become optional.

7the forecast

Her forecast is the jaw-dropper: better than even odds this happens within ten years. If a super-plague killed everyone in 2036, our silicon descendants would likely keep growing for centuries.

8the whole idea

So here's the whole idea in one picture: not 'is it AGI', but does this loop close without us, and how soon.